Monday, April 13, 2009

With One Game To Go, Here's The Playoff Scenario

OK, we here at Portland Trail Blazers HQ know there has been some confusion as to the Western Conference playoff standings. It's difficult stuff. So in an attempt to clear up some of the misconceptions, our crack sports communications staff has put together a handy-dandy primer of all the possible playoff scenarios with one game left in the regular season. Here goes ...

Eight Possible Playoff Outcomes Involving 2-5 seeds


1) If Denver loses, Houston wins, Portland wins and San Antonio wins, then Houston finishes second, Denver finishes third, Portland finishes fourth and San Antonio finishes fifth. In this scenario, San Antonio (5) plays Portland (4). Portland gets home court advantage.

2) If Denver loses, Houston loses, Portland wins and San Antonio loses, then Denver finishes second, Portland finishes third, Houston finishes fourth, San Antonio finishes fifth and New Orleans finishes sixth. In this scenario, New Orleans (6) plays Portland (3). Portland gets home court advantage.

3) If Denver loses, Houston wins, Portland wins and San Antonio loses, then Houston finishes second, Denver finishes third, Portland finishes fourth and San Antonio finishes fifth. In this scenario, San Antonio (5) plays Portland (4). Portland gets home court advantage.

4) If Denver loses, Houston loses, Portland wins and San Antonio wins, then Denver finishes second, San Antonio finishes third, Portland finishes fourth and Houston finishes fifth. In this scenario, Houston (5) plays Portland (4). Portland gets home court advantage.

5) If Denver wins, Houston loses, Portland loses and San Antonio loses, then Denver finishes second, Houston finishes third, Portland finishes fourth and San Antonio finishes fifth. In this scenario, San Antonio (5) plays Portland (4). Portland gets home court advantage.

6) If Denver wins, Houston wins, Portland loses and San Antonio wins, then Denver finishes second, Houston finishes third, San Antonio finishes fourth and Portland finishes fifth. In this scenario, Portland (5) plays San Antonio (4). San Antonio gets home court advantage.

7) If Denver wins, Houston loses, Portland loses and San Antonio wins, then Denver finishes second, San Antonio finishes third, Houston finishes fourth and Portland finishes fifth. In this scenario, Portland (5) plays Houston (4). Houston gets home court advantage.

8) If Denver wins, Houston wins, Portland loses and San Antonio loses, then Denver finishes second, Houston finishes third, Portland finishes fourth and San Antonio finishes fifth. In this scenario, San Antonio (5) plays Portland (4). Portland gets home court advantage.

• Portland secures home court in first round with win vs. Denver (or a San Antonio loss).
• Portland would have home court in the first round in 6 of 8 possible scenarios.


Matchup, number of scenarios, percentage of possibilities


San Antonio (5) at Portland (4), 4, 50%
New Orleans (6) at Portland (3), 1, 12.50%
Houston (5) at Portland (4), 1, 12.50%
Portland (5) at San Antonio (4), 1, 12.50%
Portland (5) at Houston (4), 1, 12.50%

Portland opponent, number of scenarios, percentage of possibilities
San Antonio, 5, 62.50%
Houston, 2, 25.00%
New Orleans, 1, 12.50%

So there you go. Forsake all others before this list.

(By the way, what's your least favorite scenario? Me, got to be No. 7. Having to play Houston, at Houston? No thanks.)

7 comments:

brett_fish said...

yeah #7 is easily the worst...I'd way rather take the Hornets without Chandler or the Spurs without Manu, especially if we have home court. We have struggled with Houston, and have been poor on the road, so that has to be the worst situation for us. But regardless of opponent, for a young team home court is HUGE, and that has to be the main focus. Either way I hope they stomp Denver Wednesday!

Brian said...

Thanks for helping to clear it all up Casey! One note I'd like to add is that all of the other games on Wednesday that matter start at 5pm Pacific and will be completed by about the time we tip off. We will know what, if anything, the game means to both us and Denver as the game begins.

Luke said...

Great Post!!
Clears it up nicely...

I'm hoping to either get Spurs (Blazers have Home court) or Possibly even Hornets with home court (purely because it moves us to the other side of the bracket to the L*kers)

Dude said...

I would hope that we can avoid Houston at all costs. To be honest, I'd rather play L.A. at this point.

Confusing possibilities, and amazing that there is so much riding on the last game of the season.

Great game tonight against Oklahoma City. It was great to be able to rest the starters and prepare for Denver on Wednesday. Go Blazers! UpRise!

azarrugh said...

I think your scenario's are based on the old rule that the top three seeds go to division champs. That has been revised, now "The top four seeds will be the three division winners plus the team with the next best record. Those four will be ordered by record (and tiebreakers if needed)" (from nba.com). In this case scenario 4 (Denver loses, Houston loses, Portland wins and San Antonio wins) would put Portland at #3 becuase the own the tiebreaker with San Antonio. They would face #6 Dallas. Not a great scenario since Dallas has had our number.

Casey Holdahl said...

That's not the case azarrugh. While it is true that the top three teams not longer be division winners, the fact that the Blazers and Spurs would be tied, AND the Spurs would be SW Division winners gets them the better seed. Winning the division is the first tiebreaker, even before head to head matchups.

azarrugh said...

That's absolutly right, thanks for clarifying. That makes me feel better about things. I like the idea of Portland at #4 also because of a potential 2nd round matchup with L.A. A win or even a 7 game series could be a turning point for the franchise, while a second round match-up with say Denver isn't the same and even a win wouldn't be shocking to the basketball world.