Wednesday, April 30, 2008

NBA Draft Lottery probabilities

It's possible that you have already committed to memory the Blazers chances of getting the first, second or third pick in the draft, but if you haven't, here it is:
Team Odds/1000 1 2 3 13 14 Total
Portland 6 0.6% 0.71% 0.87% 96.03% 1.79% 100%


You'll notice that the chart only shows picks 1, 2, 3, 13 and 14. The reason being that we have no chance of getting picks 4-12. That's the way the Draft Lottery works. So when you're watching the Lottery on May 20 and the Blazers make it through picks 14 and 13 without being called, you'll know that they've secured either 1, 2 or 3.

16 comments:

Ben said...

Actually I believe the Blazers can not even get the #1 pick this year, because of the Orlando draft a few years back where they got back to back #1's.

So we can get the 2nd, 3rd, 13th or 14th.

Casey Holdahl said...

Thanks for commenting Ben, but I think you're incorrect.

After Orlando won the top pick in '92 and '93, the NBA did re-weight the odds in '94 to give the worst team a better chance of winning. But as far as I can tell there is no rule stating that you can't get the first pick two years in a row.

crook said...

I think we should trade all our picks plus a player or two & move up to get Derrick Rose... Can you imagine a starting unit of Rose, Roy, Rudy, LA, & Oden...Can you say immediate contender...just some food for thought..hint hint K Pritchard

David said...

In other words... The Blazers have a 2.18% chance of landing a top-3 pick. That is what is important here. Thanks for the numbers, Casey.

Vancouver Blazers Fan said...

After last year, I'll take those odds.

Casey Holdahl said...

Thanks for all the great comments.

crook: That's a good idea in theory, but you might not like having to give away the kind of player it would take to get Derrick Rose. I think negotiations would start with one of our three best players and our pick. Would you do that? Rose has serious game, but I'm not sure I would make that deal.

david: That's a smart way to look at it. 2.18% doesn't sound so bad.

vbf: Agreed.

felix said...

Interesting opinions and explanations. Just wanted to point out Rudy will hardly be able to play small forward in the NBA, at least in his first year. He's rather a shooting guard.

Gabriel said...

Can someone please explain to me how the blazers have a 3.89% chance of dropping to the 14th pick but only 2.18% chance of getting a top 3 pick?
From what I understand the only way for Portland to drop to 14 is for the Warriors @ 14 to buck the odds. Their odds should be worse odds than Portland has with 2.18% chance.

Clay said...

Why can't the blazers get the #4-12 pick? That was one thing i didn't understand last year either (which i am glad it worked out that way though).

Casey Holdahl said...

Felix: I think you're right, but when push comes to shove, you want your five best players on the floor. If Rudy is one of those five best players, then Nate will figure out a way to get him minutes, regardless of position.

clay: I don't exactly know the "why" but I think it has to do with the notion that the point of the lottery is to give everyone not in the playoffs a chance at the first three picks rather than making picks 1-14 a free for all.

Casey Holdahl said...

Gabriel: I made a mistake regarding the probability of the Blazers getting the 14th pick. It's actually 1.79%, not 3.89% (which is actually Sacramento's chance of getting the 13th pick) as I originally posted. And as you pointed out, the Blazers chances of getting the 14th pick is almost equal to Golden State's chances of getting the first, second or third pick. The only way we end up with No.14 is if GS gets one of the top three.

BleedingRedBlackWhite said...

Clay: In the NBA draft, your pick can't be worse than three spots lower than your projected position (if all positions were based on record like the NFL). For instance, two years ago, when Portland was 21-31 and had the worst record in the NBA, the worst possible pick we could get was 4th (of which we got. Also, last year we were sixth worst, once we didn't have the 6th pick, we knew we were top three, because there's no way the 1st or 2nd worst team could have lower than 4th for 5th. So all those picks we can't possibly have, we can't have them because all the worst teams in the league are GUARANTEED to not have a worse pick than that. Does that make sense or help?

Larry said...

If you add up the percentages for receiving picks 1-3 plus picks 13 & 14, they only add up to 97.52%. What happened to the other 2.48%?

mjawribeiro said...

Why the blazers trade his 3th pick in 2005 for utah and for whath. imagin our team comands for cp3 or deron wiliams, better tham with derek rose and for whath martel webster. Anyone can explain that.

kabeezy said...

I dont think trading any our players good idea we got insane chemestry. I happy with anyone w get you sould chekc ou ock Drafts they are alot of insane good playes...its a very very deep draft. I would no mind getting Af augestin good PG, Joe Alexander i a very solid player, we can even pick up Roy hibbert and Brook lopez is a couple 7 footers can never go wrong with 7 footers C ougles and Kevin love and Brandon rush all be there. Alot quality players for not having to trade...any of those guys i would be very vry happy with...cant wait go BLAZERS!!

BRoyFTW said...

From what I understand the reason the Blazers can't get 4-12 is because the lottery only decides the top 3. Then if your not in the top 3 your draft position goes by record. We are the 13th worst team so we get the 13th pick if we are not one of the top 3 winners. Now if the Warriors get top 3, the worst team is guaranteed a 4th pick. So that bumps Portland who is second to last record wise, to the 14th instead of the 13th pick.

I hope that wasn't too confusing but I'm pretty confident that is how it works.