Monday, May 19, 2008

In the draft, there are no do-overs

Austin Burton at partakes in a fun exercise this morning, reworking the 2006 NBA Draft based on what we know now. The four rules Burton lays out regarding the re-do are as follows:
(1) The idea is that while each team has the same roster it had at the time of the Draft, they have the added benefit of knowing how each potential draftee will turn out as of today.


(2) You can’t predict injuries.


(3) Potential still matters.


(4) Lastly, you can’t predict how the rest of your roster will turn out.

So with those groundrules, Burton re-picks the '06 lottery selections. Try to guess who go 1,2,3,4 in the re-do, then read on.
1. Toronto — Brandon Roy, SG, Washington. A foundation of Roy and Bosh makes the Raptors relevant in the Eastern Conference for the next decade (or at least until one of them wants to leave Canada). A definite upgrade over Jalen Rose and Mo Pete.

2. Chicago — LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, Texas. Before the great implosion of ‘07-08, the Bulls’ one missing piece was a low-post scorer. It’s still an issue today, only now it’s just one of many.

3. Charlotte — Rudy Gay, SF, UConn. Coming off their second season as a franchise, the ‘Cats were in the mode of acquiring talent now and working out the rotation later.

4. Portland — Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga. After Z-Bo, their best offensive player was Darius Miles. Morrison’s local-kid appeal would also be good for marketing.

More proof, as if you needed it, that we made out like solid-gold bandits on draft day two years ago.

But even two years later, there's still that conventional wisdom out there the Blazers could have used Adam Morrison because he's a "local-kid" and "good for marketing." Both statements ring false to me. Spokane isn't local, and spindly jump shooters who smoke cigarettes don't sell tickets. No offense to Mr. Morrison, but it is what it is.

Knowing what we know now, there's simply no way that KP circa-2006 would pass on Rajon Rondo at the four spot. Burton has him going fifth to the Hawks in the re-do, but I'd bet me re-done life that, given the opportunity and knowing how he'd turn out, the Blazers would have grabbed Rondo in a second. He's already one of the games best point guards in his sophomore year. You don't pass on that for a guy like Morrison.


BeaverBoy19 said...

Great post. Morrison even in the top ten is completely ridiculous, let alone at #4.

Casey Holdahl said...

That surprised me as well. According to John Hollinger, Morrison was one of the worst players in the NBA during his rookie season. How that gets you picked at No. 4 in a re-do draft is beyond me.

pitar83 said...

casey man, get a hold of yourself bub. Rondo one of the game's best point guards? Please dude, he's not even in the top 20 right now. He's a good pro and is a steal at 20 (or wherever he was selected) but he'll never be one of the games best.

Sophia said...

Im making a new T-Shirt for the
2008-2009 season, it will read:

I <3 Kevin

Thanks for the post,


PS im not joking

Casey Holdahl said...

That's the most clever use of the less than symbol that I've ever seen.